Will there be life after crisis, and what kind of life will it be?

Politicians and economists, especially those who are in power now, promise us after today situation economic development, prosperity and increasing of life level. But what do these conceptions mean?

If does system of objective indices exist, which allow residents of any concrete country hope that technical inventions or economic innovations will be successful and lead to increase of its riches?

The answer is: the best estimate index, which allows making such conclusions we ought to consider changes in size of total market price of private corporations of the country, having added the price of government stocks – upon condition of maturity and transparency of its financial markets. If this sum increases, it means that possibility of society to get incomes and pay debts (private or government) grows. Situation in our country is simple – fond market is among leaders of total downfall, stocks are sold at the price, which can give the possibility to get maximal income.

The examples of how poor countries (Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong) suddenly run ahead more developed countries, exсite general admiration, jealousy and debates about why countries-leaders stumbled and lame-duck countries spurted into the lead. Everything is clear with rich of oil Middle East countries. But how did countries without large raw material resources and which weathered catastrophic shocks manage to do that? Could other states borrow their experience and achieve such high tempts?

Ability to creation is internal human nature and talented people exist in any corner of the planet. However not new ideas bring prosperity but their commercialization. Appearance of stimulus for such commercialization connects with system of tax assessment and access on financial markets. The great advantage of private financial markets is that they allow deconcentrating of process of making decisions and correcting mistakes. As a result, if small enterprise corresponds to market criteria, it develops successfully. If such enterprise goes west, it brings less harm to the society than falling of grand projects, financing by government.

Perhaps, the future generation of economists will be able to estimate to what extent impressive results, achieved by American economy after Second World War connect with moving of great number of qualified, ambitious people to USA. Than we would know, how much the movement of that priceless human capital allowed to compensate numerous and expensive mistakes, having made by the government of USA in economical policy.

Now our country has a lot of possibilities to restore recent temps of its economic expansion. One of the possibilities is active encouragement of business activity. It can be achieved by reducing income tax and profit tax; it’ll lead as to increasing of size of risky investments, so to precipitation of reaming of meaning for financing of business initiatives. But what is the most exact quantitative criteria of increasing of prosperity? One cannot depend on state statistics in our country. The most certain “checking instrument” is changes in market price of securities of Ukrainian issuers. It depends with that opinions of the people who make decisions, basing on them, allow more certainly predict the tendencies of development, than the point of view of people who don’t stake his purse on that. Of course, the changes in price don’t allow to predict future on hundred percent. Absolutely faultless indicator doesn’t exist at all.

But changes of market price of stocks of Ukrainian companies can be considered as more certain criteria of increasing of prosperity than others. Its well to bear in mind that, criteria works in case of financial market has enough “depth”. It means, that situation on financial markets of Ukraine must correctly reflect expectations, connected with policy of government and National Bank of Ukraine. If there is little quantity of informational sources or such information is under governmental control, and market players are tied hand and foot, stock exchange can’t play the role, it is intended for. Being out of enough “depth”, stock listings become senseless. Unfortunately, situation in Ukraine is namely such – bargains with funds are arranged for operators of market have the possibility to make a claim for status of its leaders.

Let’s not forget that in all ex-communistic countries “on the paper” economic indexes looked remarkably, but that statistic didn’t have nothing in common with reality.

At the definite stage macroeconomy in Ukraine began to create myth. Macroeconomy is ruled by nationwide common indexes, ignoring the fact, that in one country these indexes reflect things people really interested in, and in another country – things which ruler and politic elite want to see. I think, there is no necessity to concretize – what is the case with our country.

In such conditions simple truth was forgotten: firstly the procedure of calculating of these indexes based on thesis that relations between state and residents must carry “market” character. Macroeconomic models don’t allow to predict catastrophic or positive developments correctly. Sum up the results: a lot of historical facts show that the way to prosperity lightens in case, when the government limits its role by creation of institutes, which provide dynamic development of business initiative and financial markets. We can also confirm that idea about the government must constantly and actively interfere into the economy, - is only the result of mythcreation. But Ukrainian “independent” reality, constantly point at purposefulness of active governmental interference into economical processes. The result of this we can see constantly. Do we like this result?